While President Trump declared he was off to the best start in history - “better than Lincoln, better than Reagan, the best ever”—the economic scoreboard begged to differ. The hard data is now in: US GDP shrank by 0.3% in Q1, and that was before the chaos.
April began with a bang - Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” on April 2nd. Marketed as the grand reboot of American greatness, it quickly descended into PR carnage. Tariffs were slapped on allies, rivals, and even a few deserted islands (penguins are said to be seeking WTO arbitration). China was hit hardest, with levies jumping from 125% to 145% - an “administrative oversight,” apparently, because someone forgot to carry the 1.
The fallout was immediate. Shipping volumes through the Port of LA plummeted, and US importers warned that shelves could be empty by July. Inflation concerns resurfaced. “Made in America” suddenly looked like a cruel joke. Are we really expecting to see T-shirts sewn in California, shoes assembled in Nebraska, or ships built in Massachusetts? The last time the US led global shipbuilding, vessels were made of wood. And who is going to assemble those iphones now that all the immigrants are being kicked out?
Amongst all the madness instigated by the Orange Swan, aka Trump, volatility spiked to its highest level since COVID, with the VIX Index (used as a barometer for market uncertainty) peaking at over 50. Investor sentiment turned sharply bearish as everyone hit the Panic button. True to form though, Trump did eventually pivot, but only after the S&P had fallen ~20% from its post-inauguration high, and the bond market had a noose around his neck. Apparently, he does listen, just not always to the right advice.
And so, in true 2025 fashion, the market had one of its best days in history in April. Another reason to stay the course. Retail traders couldn’t resist the dip - buying everything from beaten-down AI names to cruise lines and crypto miners.
Speaking of crypto, Elon Musk - now part-time Treasury advisor, full-time meme generator - lost 25% of his net worth this month. His goal of saving the US government US$2 trillion through “Muskian efficiency” was quietly walked back. He exited his DOGE role at the end of April, claiming victory at just US$160 billion saved. Close enough, right?
Meanwhile, Powell remained mostly quiet - probably wisely so - while being blamed by Trump for everything short of the weather. Bond yields generally moved lower, led by the front of the curve, as markets priced in additional rate cuts, which helped to improve sentiment and support stock prices.
While global headlines dominated the month, we’ve also made some important changes closer to home.
Following a challenging period for our global funds, we have undertaken a thorough review of our global investment strategy. The outcome is an enhanced idea generation process that we are confident will deliver more consistent returns. As a result of our review, we have decided to bring the management of the Pie Global Growth Fund and Pie Global Growth 2 Funds back to Australasia.
I will continue as Portfolio Manager on both funds alongside Kent Williams (who has been running the successful Emerging Companies Fund for 3 years). Kent will step into the Head of Global Equities role. As part of this transition, we regret to advise that Guy Thornewill has moved on from Pie. Guy has been a loyal and dedicated member of our team for a number of years and we sincerely thank him for his contributions over this time with us and we wish him all the best for his future endeavours.
We’ve also expanded our offering with the launch of the Pie KiwiSaver Aggressive Fund – now available for investment – aimed at long-term investors seeking higher growth through a 95% allocation to growth assets for greater capital appreciation. Try our new Fund Chooser Tool to see if this fund may be appropriate for you.
So, what does this all mean for our funds?
Despite the noise - GDP gloom, trade drama, tariff tantrums, Musk misadventures - the majority of Pie’s investment funds actually posted gains in April. Yes, really.
It turns out that calm, conviction, and careful stock picking still matter. Volatility may be the cost of admission, but opportunity remains abundant - and at Pie, we’re finding it.
Information is current as at 30 April 2025. Pie Funds Management Limited ("Pie Funds") is the manager and issuer of the funds in the Pie Funds Management Scheme and Pie KiwiSaver Scheme (the Schemes). Any advice is given by Pie Funds and is general only. Our advice relates only to the specific financial products mentioned and does not account for personal circumstances or financial goals. Please see a financial adviser for tailored advice. You may have to pay product or other fees, like brokerage, if you act on any advice. As manager of the Schemes' investment funds, we receive fees determined by your balance and we benefit financially if you invest in our products. We manage this conflict of interest via an internal compliance framework designed to help us meet our duties to you. For information about how we can help you, our duties and complaint process and how disputes can be resolved, or to see our product disclosure statements for the Schemes, please visit www.piefunds.co.nz. Please let us know if you would like a hard copy of this disclosure information. Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Returns can be negative as well as positive and returns over different periods may vary. The information is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be reliable and accurate. However, neither Pie Funds nor any of its employees or directors gives any warranty of reliability or accuracy and shall not be liable for errors or omissions herein, or any loss or damage sustained by any person relying on such information, whatever the cause of loss or damage. No person, including the directors of Pie Funds, guarantees the repayment of units in the Schemes or any returns of units in the Schemes.