Markets continue to move through a noisy period, with AI's recent pullback, valuation opportunities in Europe and the shifting Australian rate cycle all shaping investor sentiment.
This month Pie Funds’ founder and Chief Investment Officer Mike Taylor and Michelle Lopez, Head of Australasian Equities, join Wealth Adviser Sam de Court to discuss what's driving markets - and where they're seeing opportunities.
In this month's video the team covers:
- What Mike's recent trip to London revealed about European markets
- Why the recent semiconductor pullback isn't a sign the AI trade is slowing
- How Pie Funds' Australasian equities team is using recent market weakness to upgrade portfolio quality
- Why Australia's rate cycle and its small-cap market are closely linked
- Where the team is positioning over the year ahead
Watch the video or read the full story below.
His takeaway: there's no substitute for being in the room. Sitting through the same conversations that shape deal flow and macro sentiment gave him a sharper read than notes alone ever could.
The standout finding? Europe is starting to look cheap compared to the US. What the catalyst for a re-rating might be is still an open question, but the setup is constructive: valuations leave room to move, and earnings are holding up.
Importantly, the story is starting to broaden beyond AI-linked names into other sectors - a theme the team also tested against its own stock-selection process, coming away with refinements to how they identify opportunities.
AI's "speed wobbles" - a pullback, not a pause
Elsewhere, markets have been choppy. Semiconductor names - the chips powering the AI data-centre build-out - had run hard and then pulled back sharply, with the sector index down around 20% in a fortnight.
Mike's read: this is healthy profit-taking in a bull market, not a signal the AI trend is fading. If anything, the underlying growth story is accelerating.
Meanwhile the broader, equal-weighted US market has simply been treading water through the month. Notably, this has been one of the best quarters for positive earnings revisions since 2011 - a sign of underlying strength beneath the volatility.
Australasia: a market resetting, and a portfolio being sharpened for what comes next
Michelle's message from the Australasian desk was one of quiet confidence. It's easy to lose sight of the fact that behind every unit price and fund return sit real businesses - and when she looks at what the team actually owns, she likes what she sees.
The last 12 months have been tough for Aussie small and mid-caps, largely a function of the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate-hiking cycle, which has weighed hardest on exactly this part of the market. Markets are still pricing in one more hike this year, so the near-term setting remains restrictive.
But look further out, and the picture is shifting: a genuine slowdown in consumer spending and an up-tick in unemployment - uncomfortable as they are today - are exactly what's needed to take pressure off inflation and open the door to a neutral stance. On the ground, the conversation has already started to move from "how much higher?" to "when do we pivot?"
Pie Funds' concentrated, high-conviction approach means the team holds a small number of quality businesses it knows intimately, bought at the right price - and the recent sell-off, driven as much by macro sentiment as company fundamentals, has thrown up exactly the kind of indiscriminate mispricing that discipline is built for.
Rather than retreat, the team has used it to upgrade portfolio quality across the funds, positioning for what typically happens once a hiking cycle turns: small caps tend to be among the biggest beneficiaries as the equity market moves.
In Michelle's words, the goal is to own businesses that hold up through the tougher time, and are ready to run when the cycle turns - setting the stage for compounding returns ahead.
Thanks for watching this month - we'll see you again in August.